POPA ReconFirst, these gauges measure direction, not level: the growth gauge is the probability that growth is accelerating over the next six months…
First, these gauges measure direction, not level: the growth gauge is the probability that growth is accelerating over the next six months. So “bottom third” means growth momentum is clearly fading, not that growth is weak, and the middle third means the direction is unclear. Second, none of the tercile gaps is statistically significant, so read the U-shapes as tendencies. Gold: where the returns come from The dashboard sample only starts in 1994, so the 1970s aren’t in that chart. I split gold’s returns by period and also ran the project’s longer real-time gauges back to 1972. Annualised ne…
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