POPA ReconStudy Finds Signs of Manipulation in Bitcoin Bets on World’s Largest Prediction Market
Study Finds Signs of Manipulation in Bitcoin Bets on World’s Largest Prediction Market Researchers from Stanford University and Singapore Management University found signs of settlement manipulation in Polymarket’s popular five-minute Bitcoin prediction markets. After analyzing roughly two months of trading data, the study found that some traders placed concentrated one-sided spot orders on Binance in the final seconds before settlement, briefly pushing Bitcoin’s reference price toward the outcome they had backed before prices quickly reversed. The paper identified 821 likely manipulators who…
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