Power-law dynamics in venture returns, where few big winners drive nearly all fund performance, and shares a custom "Power Law Lab"…

ahboyashreads (@ahboyashreads), May 18, 2026, 14:37 UTC

Power-law dynamics in venture returns, where few big winners drive nearly all fund performance, and shares a custom "Power Law Lab" simulator to model realistic outcomes The tool runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per fund using inputs like size, investment count, failure rate, and tail thickness, generating histograms of TVPI distributions with visible quantiles and long-tail outcomes Simulation insights show median fund TVPI around 1.3x, P90 at 3.08x, with top 1 company averaging 35% of returns, top 3 at 59%, and top 10 at 93%, underscoring high unpredictability canonical.cc/labs/power…

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