POPA ReconThe task-completion time horizon is the task duration (measured by human expert completion time) at which an AI agent is predicted to…
The task-completion time horizon is the task duration (measured by human expert completion time) at which an AI agent is predicted to succeed with a given level of reliability. For example, the 50%-time horizon is the duration at which an agent is predicted to succeed half the time. The graph below shows the 50%- and 80%-time horizons for frontier AI agents, calculated using their performance on over a hundred diverse software tasks. METR evaluated an early Claude Mythos Preview in March 2026 and estimated a 50% time-horizon of at least 16 hours (95% CI 8.5-55 hours) on their task suite, plac…
The excerpt is quoted from a public Telegram channel, which owns its text.