Bitwise raised its 10-year Bitcoin target to $1.6 million by 2036, up from $1.3 million, in its “2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions” report published Oct. 28, 2026.

Bitwise raised its 10-year Bitcoin target to $1.6 million by 2036, up from $1.3 million, in its “2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions” report published Oct. 28, 2026.

Its base case is $1,599,766, with a bear case of $130,686 and bull case of $3,667,911. Bitwise puts the implied compound annual growth rate at 34.3% with average volatility of 27.8%. report post

CIO Matt Hougan said Bitcoin is better positioned today than at any point in its past, which is why the 10-year target was lifted. post

Bitwise cited progress over a difficult year: a shallower 53% peak-to-trough drawdown than prior bears, platform approvals at major wealth managers, the first central bank purchase, continued institutional adds despite slower ETF flows, higher gold correlation, rising debt worries and demand for non-fiat assets. memo

Coverage summarized the thesis as institutions allocating 1-5% on rising adoption and demand for a debasement hedge, projecting about 34% annualized returns. post

Bitwise still flags volatility with diminishing drawdowns, plus risks from quantum computing, AI-driven math advances and regulatory reversal.